Nearly eight months into the COVID-19 pandemic, Georgia officials and public-health experts are eying the upcoming winter season with caution amid a recent uptick in positive coronavirus cases and the dual impacts of the flu.
Cases of COVID-19, which had killed 8,156 people by Friday and sickened hundreds of thousands more in Georgia, have declined sharply since a peak in late July when the state averaged more than 3,500 cases per day, according to state Department of Public Health (DPH) data.
But cases have crept back up in recent weeks from a daily average of just under 1,200 cases on Oct. 1 to more than 1,700 cases as of Thursday. The DPH data also shows the state’s case positivity rates and hospitalization counts have ticked up over the past few weeks.
Georgia’s recent increases mirror a spiking trend of new COVID-19 cases across the U.S. that soared to more than 113,000 nationwide on Thursday – though Georgia’s case rates have not risen so steeply as in many other states, said Jose Cordero, an epidemiology professor at the University of Georgia (UGA).
“Right now, we are in an upward trend,” Cordero said. “When you have a virus like [COVID-19], you have it not in a single wave but in multiple waves. And that’s exactly what we’re seeing.”
Georgia might even experience back-to-back waves of increasing COVID-19 infections if people abandon masks, social distancing and other safety precautions during the holiday season, said Isaac Fung, an associate professor of epidemiology at Georgia Southern University’s Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health.
With cold temperatures not yet present in Georgia, Fung traced the current creep in positive cases largely to people who have disregarded safety measures as the pandemic rolls on without a vaccine likely available until next year.
“If people continue to be relaxed about wearing face masks, we could potentially see a major increase after Thanksgiving and another wave after Christmas,” Fung said. “It is certainly a very challenging circumstance for many individuals, especially older age groups.”
At the same time, the rate of COVID-19 tests aimed at helping pinpoint where outbreaks occur has declined in Georgia recently, as noted in a White House task force report issued Nov. 1. Fewer tests make it tougher to gauge the true extent of the virus’ reach in local communities, the report says.
That knowledge gap could heighten the risk of spreading coronavirus in gathering places like bars or indoor parties, particularly if family and friends sick of being socially separated throw caution to the wind for the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays, said UGA’s Cordero.
“If you have people that you don’t know whether they’re positive or not, you’re going to have more [cases], especially with the asymptomatic spreaders,” Cordero said.
State public-health officials and Gov. Brian Kemp have touted boosts in testing availability and turnaround times for several months, after tests were limited and sluggish during the pandemic’s early days. Private labs and companies like CVS and Walmart joined the state to start offering tests in May.
But more recently, Georgians preoccupied with rebuilding their businesses, keeping their online-learning kids focused at home and just generally feeling fatigued by the stress and isolation of the pandemic have gone to get tested less often, said Nancy Nydam, a DPH spokeswoman.
“Testing for COVID-19 in Georgia has declined as it has nationally,” Nydam said. “There is not one definitive reason for the decline. … [But] it is possible that as we get closer to Thanksgiving and the holidays, we again will see an uptick in demand for testing.”
Alongside official testing, UGA Professor Erin Lipp and a student group have been analyzing COVID-19 levels at three Athens wastewater treatment plants since late May to gain a broader picture of the virus’ presence in Athens-Clarke County, including among infected people who do not show symptoms.
A dashboard, which depicts the weekly amount of COVID-19 viruses that detach from feces in the county’s sewerage system, has shown fluctuating levels of coronavirus in Athens since October, complicating the guesswork for how transmissions might trend in the coming winter months, Lipp said.
“We haven’t seen a consistent trend in recent weeks pointing in one direction or another,” Lipp said. “But we really need to be aware of the increased possibility of transmission in Athens, even if it’s not happening right now.”
With such uncertainty, Georgia officials and health experts are pushing to avoid simultaneous outbreaks of COVID-19 and influenza, which combined could hammer local hospitals where doctors and nurses have spent months treating coronavirus patients.
Already, Albany’s hard-hit Phoebe Putney Memorial Hospital in South Georgia is bracing for “another significant and potentially dangerous stage” in the fight against COVID-19, although positive cases and hospitalizations of late have stayed steadily low, said hospital President and CEO Scott Steiner.
“This has been a record-setting week for new COVID-19 cases nationwide as the virus spreads rapidly in many areas where cold weather has arrived,” Steiner said Friday. “Once cooler weather comes to Southwest Georgia, and we begin to spend more time indoors, the risk for virus transmission will rise.”
Kemp’s office said the governor and the state’s public-health chief, Dr. Kathleen Toomey, have been checking in regularly with hospitals ahead of the winter season to prepare for any capacity issues resulting from a potential influx of COVID-19 and flu patients.
State emergency-management officials also have “an on-hand supply” of masks, hand sanitizer and other protective gear that “can be deployed at a moment’s notice” in the event of an outbreak, said the governor’s press secretary, Cody Hall.
“We continue to urge all Georgians to follow best practices and get their flu shot to prevent a ‘twindemic’ of COVID-19 and the flu,” Hall said. “We’re also still asking Georgians to do ‘Four Things for Fall’ to mitigate the spread of COVID-19: Wear a mask, wash your hands, watch your distance and follow the guidance of public-health officials.”
Fung, of Georgia Southern, agrees those habits could help stave off a winter COVID-19 wave. He’s been sheltering in his home since March, when the virus first fired across Georgia, and put bluntly the possible consequences for people who ignore distancing and masking practices this holiday season.
“They need to be aware that they may potentially infect their grandparents,” Fung said. “If I was in that situation, I would feel very bad.”