ATLANTA – As communities continue to recover from last year’s Hurricane Helene, federal forecasters are predicting another vigorous storm season this year.
The National Weather Service is expecting an above-average number of hurricanes, giving 60% odds of above-normal activity in the Atlantic Ocean, 30% for near-normal and 10% for below-normal.
“Warm sea surface temperatures (are) probably the number one contributor,” Ken Graham, the National Weather Service director, said Thursday during a news briefing streamed from Louisiana.
The agency is forecasting 13 to 19 named storms (carrying minimum winds of 39 miles per hour) versus an average year of 14, and six to 10 hurricanes (with winds of at least 74 mph) versus the average seven.
Graham said the agency expects three to five major hurricanes, defined as Category 3 or above with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. The average is three major hurricanes.
He said forecasters can’t predict which regions would be affected.
Hurricanes aren’t the only threat. Graham said the warming atmosphere can hold more moisture.
“We’re seeing heavier rainfall rates,” he said. “Inland, coastal, the rainfall’s heavy year-round. We’re seeing some of these floods and we’re hearing from more and more communities” about unusual amounts of rain.
Graham said the risk is exacerbated by an influx of residents to coastal areas.
“There’s a lot more people in harm’s way,” he said.
Graham said the weather service is well prepared despite reports about deep cuts to his agency by the administration of President Donald Trump.
“We had some folks go, but we’re going to make sure that we have everything that we have on the front lines,” he said.