ATLANTA – The Cook Political Report has moved the presidential race in Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada from “Leans Republican” to “Toss Up,” reflecting a surge in support for Vice President Kamala Harris in battleground states.
With those moves, the independent non-partisan newsletter now rates 235 electoral votes of leaning, likely, or solid Republican and 226 electoral voted leaning, likely, or solid Democrat. There are now 77 electoral votes rated as Toss Up. It takes 270 electoral votes to win.
The changing political landscape is a result of Harris’ entry into the race last month after President Joe Biden decided not to seek re-election amid questions about his age. The Harris campaign has energized Democrats and brought in a huge influx of donations.
Before Biden dropped out of the race, former President Donald Trump was leading in The Cook Political Report’s nationwide polling by about 2.5%.
“Things look a lot better for Democrats today than they did a few weeks ago, but Trump is looking stronger now than he did in 2020,” said Amy Walter, Cook’s publisher and editor-in-chief. “This is a Toss Up.”
The Cook Political Report cited missteps by the Trump campaign for enabling the Harris surge. Trump’s tapping of U.S. Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, has drawn widespread criticism because of remarks Vance has made on the campaign trail alienating women voters, while Trump’s insensitive comments at a forum sponsored by the National Association of Black Journalists insulted Black voters.
Trump also reopened his feud with Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp during a 90-minute rally last weekend in downtown Atlanta. Kemp refused to participate in then-President Trump’s ultimately unsuccessful bid to overturn the 2020 Georgia election results.
Still, Trump is polling stronger than he did at this point in the campaign four years ago, when Biden went on to defeat the incumbent president.