ATLANTA – The Republican Party’s huge wins Tuesday in Virginia have shaken the national political landscape to such a degree that Georgia’s 2022 U.S. Senate race is now considered a toss-up.
That’s according to the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. In the Virginia governor’s race, Republican Glenn Youngkin defeated Democrat Terry McAuliffe, a longtime associate of both former President Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton, and a former Virginia governor himself.
Fellow Republicans Winsome Sears and Jason Miyares captured the lieutenant governor and attorney general posts, respectively. It also appears Republicans have taken the majority in the state House of Delegates, claiming at least 51 of the chamber’s 100 seats.
Democrats now hold a narrow majority in Virginia’s state Senate.
“Needless to say, this is a horrible result for Democrats, and for the White House,” writes the center’s Larry Sabato.
Now, Sabato is revising his nationally publicized Crystal Ball, and is now calling Georgia’s U.S. Senate race next year from Leans Democratic to Toss Up.
“Given the usual presidential party midterm drag, and the poor environment, our ratings are just too bullish on Democrats,” Sabato wrote.
Several Republicans are seeking the opportunity to face incumbent Rev. Raphael Warnock next November – University of Georgia football legend (and first-time political candidate) Herschel Walker and Georgia Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black, along with Latham Saddler, Kelvin King, James Nestor and Jared Craig.
Walker is widely considered the frontrunner in terms of cash, name recognition and endorsements, including from former President Donald Trump and the top two Republicans in the U.S. Senate: Mitch McConnell from Kentucky and Missouri’s John Thune.
“While we have not been particularly impressed with Republican candidate recruiting in these races —Walker seems like a particularly risky choice in Georgia, assuming he wins the nomination — these moves are almost entirely about the environment,” Sabato wrote.
Sabato also has changed his projections from Leans Democratic to Toss Up in Arizona for Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly and for Democratic Sen. C. Cotez Masto in Nevada. The Senate seat now held by Democrat Michael Bennet of Colorado is being changed from Safe Democratic to Leans Democratic.
“There were a lot of electoral questions that the Virginia gubernatorial race was well-positioned to help answer,” Sabato wrote. “Could Republicans make up ground in the suburbs with Donald Trump no longer in the White House? Would Republican voters turn out in force with Trump gone?
“Could Democrats fall even further in heavily white, rural/small town areas? Was the history that suggested holding the White House is a burden for the presidential party in Virginia still operative?
“Unfortunately for Democrats, and fortunately for Republicans, the answers to all of these questions were a resounding ‘yes.’ ”
This story is available through a news partnership with Capitol Beat News Service, a project of the Georgia Press Educational Foundation.
ATLANTA – It looks like a new state Senate map will be the first order of business for the General Assembly special redistricting session that convened Wednesday.
The Georgia Senate Reapportionment and Redistricting Committee will hear testimony Thursday on a proposed map Senate Republican leaders released late Tuesday.
The committee could vote on new Senate district boundaries as early as Friday, Sen. John Kennedy, R-Macon, the panel’s chairman, said during a brief committee meeting Wednesday.
Republicans currently hold 34 of the Senate’s 56 seats, to 22 for Democrats.
Under the proposed map, the Democrats could gain up to three seats, reflecting the growth of Georgia’s minority populations, voters who historically have supported Democratic candidates.
During a series of public hearings held across the state during the summer, civil rights and voting rights advocates urged majority Republicans to take minority growth into account when drawing new legislative and congressional district maps.
“The draft map … has been diligently crafted to represent our growing state,” said GOP Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, the Senate’s presiding officer. “As we continue to prioritize transparency and fairness throughout the redistricting process, listening to concerns expressed by members and the communities they represent will remain a top priority.”
The Republicans’ task of creating “minority opportunity” districts in the new Senate map was made easier when two GOP incumbents opted to run for statewide office rather than seek reelection.
The new map moves the 7th Senate District now served by Sen. Tyler Harper, R-Ocilla, from rural South Georgia – where counties are losing population – to Gwinnett County, increasing the number of Senate districts in that rapidly growing area of the state. Harper is running for agriculture commissioner.
Likewise, the 14th Senate District seat now occupied by Sen. Bruce Thompson, R-White, would be relocated to fast-growing North Fulton County. Thompson is running for commissioner of labor.
Democrats would have a shot at capturing both seats, based on the 7th District’s white voting-age population of only 35% and the 14th District’s minority voting-age population of just more than 40%. Districts where Black, Hispanic and Asian American voters make up more than 40% of the population are generally considered competitive for Democrats.
Another potential Democratic pickup can be found in Gwinnett County’s 45th Senate district, which has a minority voting-age population of 42.47%.
At Wednesday’s committee meeting, Senate Minority Leader Gloria Butler, D-Stone Mountain, urged majority Republicans to adopt maps based on concerns Georgia citizens expressed during the public hearings.
“They asked for fair maps and transparency,” Butler said. “I hope we’re really listening and will act according to their requests.”
Kennedy said members of the public provided “a lot of good valuable input” during the hearings and pledged the committee would consider that feedback.
After the committee completes its work on the Senate map, it will turn to the proposed congressional map Senate Republicans released last month.
This story is available through a news partnership with Capitol Beat News Service, a project of the Georgia Press Educational Foundation.
ATLANTA – Calling President Joe Biden’s COVID vaccine mandate for federal contractors “a big government power grab,” Gov. Brian Kemp said Wednesday the White House is attempting to turn employers into “the vaccine police.”
“This is a recipe for financial disaster,” Kemp said, just minutes before the General Assembly gaveled into a special redistricting session. “The Biden administration wants to invade the personal lives of thousands of Georgians and burden hundreds of businesses of all sizes.”
On Friday, Georgia joined several other Republican-led states in filing a long-threatened complaint against Biden and other federal agencies over the White House’s COVID vaccine mandate.
Kemp and Attorney General Chris Carr filed the complaint in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Georgia. The lawsuit claims the mandate is unconstitutional.
Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black said Biden’s mandate could impact whether Georgia has enough workers to properly inspect food and meat.
“We need clarity on this,” said Black, who also is seeking the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate.
“This lawsuit is not about COVID vaccines,” said Carr. “I am pro vaccine. I am vaccinated myself. This lawsuit is about Biden overstepping his authority. It’s about whether a president has the authority to run a state agency through his federal contracting power. And he does not.”
On Tuesday, the White House released the results of a poll conducted by Small Business for America’s Future, which it said shows widespread support among small businesses for encouraging vaccinations, including with workforce requirements.
The poll, conducted Oct. 18-26 among 1,032 small businesses connected through the organization’s network, found 60% of small business owners believe vaccination efforts are important to ensuring a full economic recovery from COVID-19.
It also found support (68%) for requiring vaccinations for federal government employees, and 87% of small business owners agreed that requiring companies with 100 or more employees to have all of their workers vaccinated or tested weekly will help get more Americans back to work.
This story is available through a news partnership with Capitol Beat News Service, a project of the Georgia Press Educational Foundation.
ATLANTA – Atlanta City Council President Felicia Moore was headed toward a first-place finish Tuesday night in the city’s mayoral contest.
But with 16 candidates in the race, it was clear she would not be able to amass the 50%-plus-one margin needed to avoid a Nov. 30 runoff.
With nearly 96% of the precincts reporting as of 11 p.m., Moore led with 40% of the vote.
But Moore’s runoff opponent remained uncertain late Tuesday night. Former Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed was running second with 23.7% of the vote, and Councilman Andre Dickens was a close third at 22.6%.
Earlier Tuesday night, Moore thanked her supporters for their hard work during the campaign.
“These people have put their heart and soul and time and money toward a new Atlanta where everyone’s going to feel safe and where, when you spend your money for taxes and services, you’re going to get them,” Moore told WXIA-TV.
Moore was elected council president four years ago after serving on the city council representing a district in northwestern Atlanta.
Reed was elected mayor in 2009 and served two terms. Before that, he served as a state senator representing an Atlanta district.
Dickens gave up his council seat to run for mayor. He was elected to an at-large seat on the council in 2013 and is completing his second term.
Current Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms surprised political observers earlier this year when she announced she would not seek a second term at the helm of the city.
As Moore indicated with her remarks, rising crime was the key issue throughout this year’s mayoral campaign. The candidates proposed various approaches to stemming violence in a city that has seen a huge increase in homicides this year along with increases in assaults and auto thefts.
This story is available through a news partnership with Capitol Beat News Service, a project of the Georgia Press Educational Foundation.
Georgia House Republican leaders released a proposed state House map late Tuesday.
ATLANTA – Georgia House Republican leaders released a proposed map of state House districts late Tuesday less than 12 hours before the General Assembly kicks off its once-a-decade redrawing of legislative and congressional districts.
The map meets many of the criteria set down in guidelines adopted by the state House and Senate committees in charge of redistricting.
It has a population deviation of less than plus-or-minus 1.5%, meaning the 180 House districts vary by fewer than 1,800 people. By law, legislative district may vary in population by up to plus-or-minus 5%.
The Republican map also reduces the number of counties split between House districts from 73 to 68, preserving more “communities of interest,” another goal of the redistricting guidelines.
And it creates a number of new “minority opportunity” districts to let minority voters elect candidates of their choice, according to a news release put out by House Republican leaders.
“We have produced a fair and equitable map representative of Georgia’s changing demographics and shifting population centers that is in full compliance with the spirit and letter of the law,” said House Speaker David Ralston, R-Blue Ridge.
Indeed, minority population growth in North Georgia and metro Atlanta could play to Democrats’ advantage.
A preliminary look at the proposed House map shows Democrats may have a chance to pick up seats now held by Republicans in Gwinnett, Cobb and Forsyth counties. Hispanic growth in the Gainesville and Dalton areas also could result in Democratic gains.
Democrats also could threaten a couple of GOP-held seats in Southwest Georgia, where House districts will have to become larger because of population losses in the region during the last decade.
Ralston also praised the map as the result of an inclusive process that featured 11 joint House-Senate committee hearings held last summer both online and in cities around the state with 22 hours of public testimony.
Lawmakers also received more than 700 written comments from interested citizens through an online portal.
The General Assembly redraws Georgia’s congressional and legislative district maps every 10 years to account for population shifts reflected in the U.S. Census.
This story is available through a news partnership with Capitol Beat News Service, a project of the Georgia Press Educational Foundation.
